Syria After Assad: What Comes Next for the Region and the World?

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime and the swift rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as the dominant power in Syria have sent shockwaves across the region. As the dust settles in Damascus, the question on everyone’s mind is: What happens next? With over 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, a complex Kurdish question in the north, and HTS recognized as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the U.S., and many others, the challenges are immense. Let’s explore the key issues shaping the future of Syria and its impact on the region.

Will Syrian Refugees Return?

One of the most pressing questions is whether the estimated 5 million Syrian refugees in Turkey will return to their homeland. For years, Turkey has pushed for a safe zone in northern Syria to facilitate voluntary repatriation, but the rise of HTS complicates these plans.

• HTS Leadership: Refugees may be hesitant to return to areas under the control of an Islamist faction, even one that has attempted to rebrand itself as moderate.
• Infrastructure and Security: After over a decade of war, much of Syria’s infrastructure is in ruins. Refugees will need assurance of basic services, safety, and long-term stability before considering a return.
• International Response: The international community will likely face pressure to support reconstruction efforts in Syria to create conditions conducive to refugee repatriation. However, working with HTS may prove politically challenging.

The Future of Kurdish Regions

Syria’s Kurdish regions, controlled by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), represent another flashpoint in the post-Assad landscape. These areas are rich in oil and agriculture, making them strategically significant for any future Syrian government.

• HTS’s Stance: HTS’s Islamist ideology and historical hostility toward Kurdish groups could lead to heightened tensions. A direct confrontation with the SDF would draw in U.S. forces and further destabilize the region.
• Turkey’s Position: Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization. Ankara will likely push for further military action to weaken Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria.
• Possible Outcomes: A federative solution could provide a framework for coexistence, but given the ideological differences between HTS and the SDF, this remains a distant possibility.

Israel’s Role in the New Syria

Israel has long viewed Syria as a front line in its conflict with Iran and Hezbollah. With Assad gone, Israel may see new opportunities to expand its influence.

• Strategic Advantage: The collapse of Assad’s regime disrupts Iran’s supply lines to Hezbollah. Israel is likely to continue its airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria to prevent any resurgence of influence.
• Golan Heights: Israel could use the current chaos to further solidify its control over the Golan Heights, which it annexed in 1981 but remains internationally disputed.
• HTS and Israel: While unlikely, any indirect engagement between HTS and Israel would be a highly contentious development, particularly for neighboring countries like Turkey and Jordan.

International Dynamics and the Role of the West

HTS’s rise puts Western nations in a difficult position. On one hand, they have long sought Assad’s removal. On the other, they cannot openly support HTS due to its terrorist designation.

• U.S. Policy: The U.S. is likely to continue its support for the SDF while pressuring HTS to adopt more inclusive governance. Washington’s main goal will be to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and contain Iranian influence.
• Russia’s Role: Despite facilitating Assad’s peaceful departure, Russia remains a key player with military bases in Syria. Moscow will prioritize protecting its strategic interests in the region.
• European Union: The EU may play a significant role in funding reconstruction efforts, but only under conditions that promote human rights and inclusivity.

Can HTS Govern Syria?

HTS faces monumental challenges in transitioning from an armed group to a governing authority.

• Legitimacy: HTS’s terrorist designation limits its ability to gain international recognition. To establish legitimacy, it must demonstrate inclusivity and a commitment to governance beyond Islamist principles.
• Internal Conflict: Syria remains deeply fragmented, with rival factions vying for control. HTS will need to navigate these divisions carefully to avoid civil war.
• Economic Collapse: Syria’s economy is in shambles, with high unemployment, inflation, and widespread poverty. Without significant international aid, rebuilding the country will be nearly impossible.

What Does This Mean for Turkey?

For Turkey, Assad’s fall is both a victory and a challenge.

• Refugee Repatriation: Ankara may push harder for the return of Syrian refugees, using the new political landscape as an opportunity.
• Security Concerns: Turkey’s longstanding ties with HTS may complicate its relationship with Western allies, particularly if HTS becomes more assertive in northern Syria.
• Regional Influence: Turkey’s influence in Syria is at its peak, but maintaining this position will require balancing relations with HTS, the SDF, and other international actors.

A Fragile Path Forward

Syria’s future remains deeply uncertain. HTS’s rise to power has reshaped the political landscape, but the country faces significant hurdles in achieving stability. Whether it’s the return of refugees, the status of Kurdish regions, or the role of international powers, each issue is fraught with complexities.

The world will be watching closely as Syria embarks on this uncertain journey. The coming weeks and months will determine whether HTS can transform from a militant group into a governing authority, and whether Syria can move toward a semblance of peace or descend further into chaos.