Uncertain Paths: How Labour’s Immigration Reforms Are Stirring Anxiety Among Turkish Migrants in the UK

“They promised stability. Now it feels like betrayal,” says one former Ankara Agreement holder. As Labour lays out sweeping new rules, Turkish residents once again find themselves in legal limbo.

By Fevzi Kemal Torun

A New Plan for a New Era—or More Legal Chaos?

On 13 May 2025, the UK government unveiled its long-awaited immigration white paper, promising a “controlled, selective and fair” system. Prime Minister Keir Starmer assured the public that the new measures would “restore confidence” and “bring down numbers responsibly.” But in Turkish WhatsApp groups across London, panic set in almost immediately.

For thousands of Turkish nationals—especially those who arrived under the now-defunct Ankara Agreement—these new proposals have reopened old wounds. The suggestion that Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) would now require 10 years of residence instead of 5, and a higher English proficiency (B2 instead of B1), sparked an immediate wave of confusion and anxiety.

“This feels like 2018 all over again,” said Ayşe, a business owner in Hackney. “We’ve already adapted to Brexit, fought for ILR extensions, now they want to move the goalposts again?”

Labour’s Proposal at a Glance

The immigration reforms, while still under consultation, propose major changes:

• ILR period doubled from 5 to 10 years.
• English proficiency required at B2 level (up from B1).
• Visa pathways for care workers and dependents to be tightened or scrapped.
• New “earned settlement” points-based system.
• Work visa thresholds raised to university-degree level.
• Only sectors deemed in national interest will retain lower qualification allowances.
• No guarantee that these changes will exclude existing residents.

While the Home Office insists transitional provisions may apply, no firm commitments were made. This legal ambiguity is exactly what has triggered renewed fear in migrant communities—especially among Turkish citizens, many of whom feel they are being made to pay twice for Brexit.

Turkish Voices: “We’re Always the Exception—and the Target”

Turkish migrants in the UK have long had a complicated relationship with the immigration system. The Ankara Agreement (ECAA) allowed Turkish nationals to establish businesses and gain residency under special conditions until the UK’s full exit from the EU in 2021. But changes came fast and hard.

In 2018, without prior consultation, the government extended the ILR requirement from 4 to 5 years for Ankara Agreement holders. An estimated 20,000 were affected. Legal challenges followed, but the government prevailed. Trust was lost—and never fully rebuilt.

Now, the fear is that history will repeat itself. “Back then, they said we would be protected. We weren’t,” said Emre, a software developer who arrived in 2017. “Now they say it’s just a consultation. We know better.”

A comment buried in the technical annex of the white paper was particularly jarring. It stated that “some individuals may choose to leave the UK if settlement becomes more difficult.” For many, that wasn’t just an observation—it was a warning.

Will These Reforms Affect Existing Residents?

The government has not offered clarity. During a recent session in Parliament, Labour MP Florence Eshalomi pressed Home Secretary Yvette Cooper for a direct answer: would the new settlement rules apply to those already living and working in the UK?

Cooper declined to confirm either way. “We will consult widely before implementing changes,” she said, adding that this was about “fixing the chaos left by the Conservatives.”

Legal experts are split. Some point to past judgments, such as Odelola v Secretary of State, where courts ruled that new rules could apply even to current visa holders. Others argue that applying changes retroactively would breach the principle of “legitimate expectation.”

“In plain terms,” said immigration solicitor Yaşar Doğan, “it would be deeply unjust to alter the rules for those who entered under one promise and now face a different reality. But the law doesn’t always protect fairness.”

What Should Turkish Residents Do Now?

Legal advisors and advocacy groups are urging calm—but also action. Those eligible for ILR or citizenship are being encouraged to apply as soon as possible, before any new rules come into force. Campaigns are already forming to pressure the government into including transitional protections.

There is precedent. The HSMP Forum cases of the late 2000s successfully challenged retrospective immigration changes based on legitimate expectation. Whether the Turkish community could organise a similar legal push remains to be seen.

In the meantime, lawyers warn against complacency. “Don’t assume you’ll be exempt,” one post circulating in Turkish Facebook groups reads. “Submit your applications while the door is still open.”

A History Repeating Itself?

Migration policy in the UK has often left behind complex legacies. For Turkish migrants who arrived in good faith under the Ankara Agreement, each new policy shift reopens a sense of vulnerability.

“Ankara came with a handshake,” said Selin, a journalist-turned-care worker. “Now they act like we snuck in through the back door.”

As the consultation process unfolds, there’s still time for Labour to assure communities that settled migrants won’t become casualties of new metrics. But without a clear, written exemption—uncertainty reigns.

Closing Thoughts: The Stakes of Silence

The Turkish community in the UK is far from marginal. It spans generations, contributes across sectors, and helps shape the country’s multicultural fabric. Yet this latest policy draft reminds them that political winds can change fast—and often without warning.

If this truly is a system based on fairness, the people who built lives under previous agreements deserve at least one thing in return: certainty.