Cyprus in Limbo: A Nation in Waiting, a People in Doubt

As Northern Cyprus drifts further into dependency and diplomatic isolation, its people face a difficult truth: sovereignty may remain a dream, and self-governance, a memory.

Just steps from the UN buffer zone dividing Cyprus, a Turkish Cypriot man stirs his coffee slowly. “We have two passports,” he says, “but no country.” That quiet frustration echoes across northern Cyprus today—a place governed but unrecognised, represented yet unheard.

Recognised only by Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is trapped in political limbo. In 2025, that status has grown more precarious than ever. Internal autonomy is eroding, foreign allies have gone silent, and Ankara’s grip has grown heavier.

Brothers No More

Hope once rested with the Organisation of Turkic States—Turkey and its Central Asian partners. But in April, that illusion shattered. At a summit in Samarkand, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan formally aligned with the EU, affirming support for Greek Cypriot sovereignty under UN Security Council Resolutions 541 and 550. A €12 billion EU aid package sealed the deal. The betrayal stung in the north.

President Ersin Tatar’s muted response—“They’re acting in their national interest”—only deepened the dismay. It underscored an open secret: Turkish Cypriots remain diplomatic hostages to Ankara’s foreign policy.

From Autonomy to Administration

In exchange for financial support—21 billion Turkish Lira in 2025 alone—Ankara has acquired sweeping control over the TRNC’s civil service, salary disbursement, and public procurement. Even domestic laws must now mirror Turkey’s.

A new Presidential Complex, funded by Turkey and housing the executive, judiciary and a mosque, is a potent symbol. Its inauguration by Turkish clerics marked, for many, a break with northern Cyprus’s secular identity. “We’re not a province of Turkey,” opposition MP Doğuş Derya said. “But our institutions now behave as if we are.”

Ballot Boxes and Demographics

Elections no longer feel sovereign. Since the controversial 2020 vote that unseated pro-federation leader Mustafa Akıncı, more than 25,000 new citizenships have reportedly been granted—mostly to mainland Turkish settlers. Opposition groups cite widespread voter engineering, media bias, and Ankara-directed appointments. The result, says Derya, is “a democratic façade.”

Beneath the Casinos: A Dark Economy

Behind the gleaming facades of Kyrenia’s casinos lies a more sinister reality. Human trafficking and unregulated vice thrive in the shadows. The 2025 death of a young woman in Lefke—officially ruled a suicide—reignited accusations of systemic exploitation in venues licensed as “entertainment clubs.”

Meanwhile, the legacy of slain casino tycoon Halil Falyalı continues to haunt the political sphere. Murders, money laundering and missing recordings have fuelled speculation of links between organised crime and Turkish state actors. “Before we can speak of sovereignty,” said a Nicosia-based activist, “we must clean our own house.”

Derya’s Warning, Derya’s Hope

For Doğuş Derya, a feminist MP from the Republican Turkish Party, the decay is personal. “We’re witnessing a campaign of identity engineering,” she said, citing shifts in school curricula, judicial changes, and religious intrusions. Still, she insists a federal solution remains possible—and essential.

The Mirage of Recognition

Despite Ankara’s push for a two-state solution, the UN, EU and UK remain steadfast in supporting a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. Negotiations stalled years ago, despite most technical issues being resolved. What remains absent is political will.

As Derya puts it: “The two-state model is not our demand. It’s Ankara’s.”

A Future in Exile?

Many young Turkish Cypriots are voting with their feet. Frustrated by inflation, censorship, and lack of opportunity, they are emigrating—often to the EU or the UK. “We have no future here,” says Leyla, a 23-year-old engineering graduate. “We are governed without dignity, and without choice.”

Britain’s Forgotten Duty

As a guarantor power under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, the UK has a legal responsibility to safeguard Cyprus’s independence and integrity. Yet its involvement has been minimal, limited largely to military interests in Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Now, diaspora voices in London and Manchester are demanding renewed engagement and a commitment to a federal solution.

Between Submission and Sovereignty

Northern Cyprus today stands not between East and West, but between imposed fragmentation and reclaimed unity. The dream of international recognition has faded. But among Turkish Cypriots, a quieter hope persists—that federal reunification, grounded in shared rights, may still offer a path forward.

As Derya says: “If this island is to be saved, it will be saved by those who live on it—not those who rule it from afar.”