Analysis: The Fall of Assad and the Emergence of HTS Leadership in Syria

The collapse of the Assad regime has ushered in a new chapter in Syria’s tumultuous history. The regime’s peaceful withdrawal from Damascus, negotiated with Russian oversight, signals the end of 61 years of Ba’athist rule. The swift rise of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), with Abu Muhammad al-Julani at its helm, highlights the precarious nature of Syria’s future under its new leadership.

A Peaceful Handover or a Precursor to Chaos?

The handover of Damascus to HTS occurred without a single bullet being fired, a scenario negotiated behind closed doors with Russia. Assad’s departure to Moscow underlines the calculated retreat by a regime that could no longer withstand internal and external pressures. Yet, the transition leaves Syria divided among numerous factions, ranging from Islamist groups to regional militias with conflicting agendas.

The apparent calm masks deep-seated divisions. HTS, initially an al-Qaeda affiliate, has rebranded itself as a “moderate” Islamist organization. This transformation has earned HTS limited acceptance on the international stage, though it remains on terrorist lists in Turkey and the West. HTS’s new leadership faces the monumental challenge of consolidating power while managing an array of armed factions vying for influence.

HTS’s Leadership and Challenges Ahead

HTS’s leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, has presented himself as a pragmatic figure, distancing his organization from its extremist roots. However, the group’s history and its associations with al-Qaeda leave lingering doubts about its commitment to inclusivity and moderation.

• Internal Unity: Syria’s new power landscape includes diverse groups, many of which have clashed violently in the past. HTS’s ability to mediate among these factions will determine its longevity.
• Governance: The absence of a cohesive administrative structure poses challenges. HTS’s efforts to govern will likely focus on presenting an image of stability while grappling with economic collapse, corruption, and fractured state institutions.
• Ethnic and Sectarian Inclusion: The inclusion of minorities—such as Kurds, Alawites, and Druze—remains a contentious issue. Without broad-based participation, HTS risks alienating significant portions of the population.

Geopolitical Implications

The fall of Assad shifts the regional balance of power. Key players, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the U.S., will jostle for influence in post-Assad Syria.

• Russia’s Role: Having facilitated the peaceful transfer of power, Russia maintains leverage through its military bases and veto power in the UN Security Council. Moscow will prioritize its strategic interests while remaining cautious about overcommitment.
• Turkey’s Strategy: Turkey’s long-term backing of HTS adds complexity to its relations with the U.S., particularly regarding the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey’s influence in northern Syria ensures it will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s future.
• Iran’s Diminished Presence: With its influence eroded by repeated Israeli strikes and internal challenges, Iran’s ability to shape Syria’s future has waned.

A Fragmented Future

Syria faces an uncertain future marked by fragmentation. HTS’s ability to navigate the country’s internal divisions while managing external pressures will determine whether Syria descends into further chaos or embarks on a fragile path toward reconstruction.

The peaceful transfer of power in Damascus marks the beginning of a complex, volatile era. HTS’s promises of inclusivity and moderation face the test of governing a fractured nation. Whether this marks a step toward stability or a descent into prolonged conflict remains to be seen.