Turkey in 2025: A Nation at a Crossroads
2024: A Year of Change in Local Politics
The local elections of 2024 marked a significant shift in Turkey’s political landscape. The main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), gained control of major municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, bolstering its influence in key urban centers. These victories highlighted growing public dissatisfaction with the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, amidst widespread economic struggles and concerns over governance.
For the AKP, the loss of metropolitan areas reflects mounting pressure as Turkey grapples with economic challenges, high inflation, and corruption allegations. The results signal a resurgence for the opposition but also raise questions about how effectively they can leverage these gains to impact national policy.
Economic Woes: Inflation and Corruption
Turkey’s economy remains its most pressing challenge. Inflation rates soared to double digits throughout 2024, severely eroding purchasing power. The Turkish lira continued to weaken against major currencies, making imports more expensive and adding to the economic burden on ordinary citizens.
Rampant corruption has exacerbated public frustration. Reports of mismanagement and favoritism in key sectors, including construction and energy, have sparked public outcry. Efforts to attract foreign direct investment have been undermined by inconsistent policies and concerns about judicial independence.
In 2025, addressing inflation, promoting transparency, and rebuilding investor confidence will be crucial. The government’s success—or failure—on these fronts could determine Turkey’s trajectory for years to come.
Migration and the Refugee Crisis
Turkey hosts the world’s largest refugee population, including over 3.6 million Syrians. Public resentment towards refugees has grown, fueled by economic hardship and political rhetoric. The government’s policies on migration are under scrutiny, as it navigates international obligations and domestic discontent.
In 2025, Turkey aims to increase resettlement efforts, particularly in Syria’s north, where Ankara has established a military presence. However, these efforts face logistical and geopolitical challenges, including the stability of post-Assad Syria and resistance from Kurdish factions.
Syria Policy: Navigating a Shifting Landscape
Turkey’s role in Syria remains pivotal. The collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024 has created a power vacuum, intensifying regional competition. Ankara views this as both an opportunity and a challenge.
Turkey’s primary objectives include:
- Securing its border: Preventing the resurgence of Kurdish militant groups and ensuring that refugees can safely return to Syria.
- Influencing post-Assad governance: Supporting factions aligned with Turkish interests to shape Syria’s future political landscape.
- Maintaining international alliances: Balancing relations with Russia, the United States, and regional actors like Iran.
While Turkey has achieved some military successes in northern Syria, the risks of prolonged involvement remain high, including further strain on its economy and military resources.
Domestic Challenges: Kurdish Issue and Brain Drain
The Kurdish issue continues to polarize Turkish politics. Efforts to resume peace talks have gained some traction, but mistrust between the government and Kurdish groups remains a significant barrier. A comprehensive approach addressing political representation, economic development in Kurdish-majority regions, and cultural rights is necessary but politically fraught.
Meanwhile, brain drain poses a long-term challenge. Turkey has seen an exodus of skilled professionals, particularly in the tech, healthcare, and education sectors. Many cite limited opportunities, political instability, and restrictions on freedoms as reasons for leaving. Reversing this trend will require meaningful reforms in governance and investment in innovation-driven industries.
EU Relations: A Stalemate
Turkey’s relationship with the European Union remains strained. Despite its strategic importance, issues like human rights, press freedom, and democratic backsliding have stalled accession talks. The EU’s refusal to grant visa liberalization to Turkish citizens continues to sour public opinion.
In 2025, progress on EU relations appears unlikely without significant political and judicial reforms in Turkey. However, pragmatic cooperation on issues like migration, energy, and trade remains possible.
UK-Turkey Relations: Strengthening Ties
Post-Brexit, the UK has emerged as a key partner for Turkey. The two nations have deepened economic ties, with a trade agreement signed in 2024 focusing on sectors like automotive, textiles, and technology. Bilateral trade reached record highs, and Turkey has become a vital energy corridor for the UK’s transition to cleaner energy.
In 2025, further collaboration is expected in areas such as:
- Defence: Joint production of military technology.
- Technology: Partnerships in AI, cybersecurity, and green innovation.
- Tourism: Increased investment in Turkey’s tourism infrastructure to attract British visitors.
Both countries view their partnership as an opportunity to navigate global uncertainties, leveraging each other’s strategic advantages. This relationship not only boosts economic growth but also fosters political dialogue on key international issues.
Looking Ahead: 2025 and Beyond
Turkey stands at a crossroads in 2025, facing complex internal and external challenges. The economic outlook is uncertain, but there is hope that policy adjustments and international partnerships can foster stability. Domestically, addressing governance issues and social tensions will be critical for maintaining unity and progress.
On the global stage, Turkey’s active diplomacy in Syria and its strategic ties with both the West and the Middle East position it as a key regional player. However, achieving sustainable growth and resolving longstanding issues like the Kurdish question will determine whether Turkey can realize its potential as a bridge between East and West.
